Miss vietnam

As a leading financial newspaper run by Japanese media giants Nikkei Inc., Nikkei Asia have stated that, “Southeast Asia’s growth leader in 2021 may well be Vietnam”, during a recent article detailing ASEAN’s GDP forecasts for the year ahead.

The Hanoitimes – In order to ensure transparency and publicity, Vietnam invited the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and representatives of the United Nations to take part in the recalculation process.

Vietnam’s method to revise the GDP is transparent and follows international practices, according to Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc.

Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc at National Assembly’s hearing. Source: VGP.

The revision would result in an enlargement of 25.5% of Vietnam’s economy, taking the GDP from US$267 billion currently to US$310 billion.

“The revision would only be effective after 2020, not at the moment. Therefore, it is not the fondness for achievement that the government revised the GDP,” said Phuc at a hearing before the National Assembly on November 8.

For the time being, the government still uses data before recalculation, Phuc added.

According to Phuc, GDP revision is a common international practice when a country reassesses its GDP after a certain period of time.

In order to ensure transparency and publicity, Vietnam invited the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and representatives of the United Nations to take part in the recalculation process, Phuc added.

Additionally, Vietnam had not included the shadow economy into the GDP calculation, while in other countries, every purchase of trivial things comes with a receipt, stated Phuc.

“In the calculation process, Vietnam missed a lot of things and had a big loss from inefficient tax collection,” he stressed.

Late in August, Head of the General Statistics Office (GSO) Nguyen Bich Lam announced the GDP revision that resulted in an enlargement of 25.4% annually of Vietnam’s economy in the 2010 – 2017 period compared to the previous data.

Finance expert Pham Dinh Cuong said GDP revision only serves the purpose of comparison with other countries, instead of having a substantial impact on the economy itself.

Meanwhile, economist Vo Tri Thanh said GDP revision may impact the economy in the long term by leading to changes in a number of economic targets.

Prof. Dr. Andreas Stoffers – Country director, Vietnam The Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom

The United Kingdom is an important trading partner of Vietnam. In 2020, trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $6.6 billion. With $5.8 billion in exports, Vietnam’s trade balance was clearly positive, which also underlines the country’s strong interest in reaching an amicable agreement with the UK. In recent years, despite the uncertainties associated with Brexit, the growth of trade relations has been unbroken, averaging 12.1 per cent per annum in 2011-2019.

The trade relations between the EU and Vietnam are naturally greater given the fact that the EU is the world’s largest market. In 2019, the EU was the second-most important overseas market for Vietnamese products with a total trade volume of $56.45 billion, of which Vietnam’s exports accounted for two-thirds ($41.55 billion). This is 16 per cent of the country’s total export volume. In 2020, exports to the EU increased to $34.8 billion, and imports to $14.5 billion.

Vietnam benefits significantly more from bilateral economic relations than the EU. The continuous surplus Vietnam enjoys in its bilateral trade relations with the EU has been instrumental in offsetting Vietnam’s huge trade deficits with China and South Korea.

Vietnam exports mainly electronics, footwear, clothing and textiles, coffee, seafood, and furniture. The most important goods of EU exports to Vietnam are high-tech products including boilers, machinery and mechanical products, electrical machinery and equipment, pharmaceuticals, and a very limited number of motor vehicles. The EVFTA opens many opportunities for producers and traders on both sides, including small- and medium-sized enterprises.

The EVFTA is of course one of the most modern and far-reaching agreements of its kind. It plays an important role in promoting trade liberalisation between Vietnam and the EU.

Combined with the new Law on Investment which entered into force on January 1, and the other FTAs concluded by Vietnam, the Southeast Asian country has set an important course to improve its position as a trading partner and investment destination. From Vietnam’s perspective, the UKVFTA goes in the same direction.

The UK, looking to strike deals in the aftermath of Brexit, used the EVFTA as a template for a Vietnam deal, photo Le Toan

Differences and similarities

“Recognising their longstanding and strong partnership based on common principles and values, and their important economic, trade and investment relationship”. This formula replaces the preamble of the EVFTA in the UKVFTA. If one reads both agreements in parallel, one notices the large overlaps, not only at the beginning, where only some words are replaced by others.

In fact, there are so many similarities between the two FTAs that it is fair to call the UKVFTA a clone of the EVFTA. However, there are some small but subtle differences.

In 14 sectors of the agreement, the UK allows Vietnam to export at zero tax with a certain quota: egg yolks and poultry, garlic, sweetcorn, milled rice, milled rice, tapioca starch, tuna, surimi, sugar and products high in sugar, mushrooms, ethanol, mannitol, sorbitol, Dextrin, and other modified starches.

In the area of banking services, Vietnam agreed to favourably allow UK credit institutions to increase their foreign holdings to 49 per cent of their charter capital in a Vietnamese joint stock commercial bank. Similar to the EVFTA framework, this commitment is only valid for five years (after that, Vietnam will not be bound by this commitment) and not applicable to the four joint stock commercial banks with a dominant government share, BIDV, VietinBank, Vietcombank, and Agribank.

In addition, the implementation of this commitment will be required to fully comply with regulations on procedures for mergers and acquisitions as well as safety and competition conditions, including the applicable shareholding limit. Vietnam allows the EU to raise 49 per cent in two banks while allowing the UK for the equal or even higher treatment of a bank (mostly HSBC and Standard Chartered) to raise their holding to the ceiling.

Within the EVFTA, one of the signing parties may grant subsidies when they are necessary to achieve a public policy objective. The parties acknowledge that certain subsidies have the potential to distort the proper functioning of markets and undermine the benefits of trade liberalisation. In principle, a party should not grant subsidies to enterprises providing goods or services if they negatively affect, or are likely to affect, competition and trade.

As far as the UKVFTA is concerned, the policy is less tolerant. “In principle, a party should not grant subsidies to enterprises providing goods or services if they significantly negatively affect or are likely to significantly negatively affect trade between the two parties.”

In several areas, the EVFTA is more specific than the UKVFTA. There are for instance some notes on fruit and vegetables in accordance with the Common Customs Tariff provided for in Commission Implementing Regulations and successor acts, laying down detailed rules.

Binding Vietnam into more specific rules is a wise strategy to make sure products are high quality and stops sub-standard products entering difficult UK markets.

Global Britain

Following the UK’s decision to leave the EU, the UK faces many challenges. A key one was how to manage trade relations with countries that had previously benefited from the EU’s trade agreements. As a huge trading bloc encompassing 27 European nations the EU is, in terms of trade policy, a power factor that can forcefully assert its interests.

Of course, a medium-sized single country like the UK does not have this power. Therefore, concessions have to be made that a giant like the EU does not have to make. However, the sheer size of the EU means that the individual and sometimes conflicting interests of the individual member states have to be taken into account. As a result, decision-making processes sometimes remain protracted, as can be seen in the decade-long negotiations on the EVFTA.

Accordingly, Great Britain has the advantage of being very agile. This means that FTAs can be launched much more quickly. This is especially true if no major concessions are expected on the part of the contracting partner. In addition, existing agreements – such as the very comprehensive and modern EVFTA – can be used as a model.

“Global Britain” is the British government’s leitmotif for its post-Brexit foreign policy. It was used by Theresa May in her first major speech as prime minister at her party’s conference. It signals that the country would not be inward-looking after Brexit, but on the contrary would have a global perspective that goes beyond Europe.

As stated in the joint agreement between the UK and Vietnam in last December, the UKVFTA is “also a key step towards the UK joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership”. Therefore, the UKVFTA is only one, but an essential building block of the post-Brexit UK’s liberal trade policy. Many more agreements will follow.

In order to reposition Vietnam after the COVID-19 crisis, both the EVFTA and the UKVFTA are an important element on the road to economic recovery. After the pandemic has started to shake the world’s economy, Vietnam has used the time well.

In addition to these two FTAs, there are many other steps to take, above all the new investment law, which helps Vietnam to emerge stronger from the crisis. Vietnam’s goal in repositioning its economy is not reaching a “V-shaped” curve of improvement, as so many other nations hope; rather, it lies in a “square-root recovery” where the pre-crisis level is not only to be reached, but clearly surpassed in order to continue growing at a higher level.

The efforts of the Southeast Asian nation will be crowned with success, and most analysts are bullish about Vietnam’s prospects. The EVFTA and the UKVFTA stand for the open and liberal politics of Vietnam, and they will make Vietnam – especially in conjunction with the new investment law and EU-Vietnam Investment Protection Agreement – more attractive for foreign investors.

The Hanoitimes – Vietnam’s rise of three ranking positions to 8th overall is the fastest rise in the top half of the Index and displaces regional partner Thailand in the top 10.

Vietnam moved up three places to 8th in the top 10 countries of the Emerging Markets Logistics Index 2021 by Agility, one of the world’s top freight forwarding and contract logistics providers.

Cargos handling at Dinh Vu port, Hai Phong. Photo: Pham Hung

Among countries in ASEAN, Vietnam stood at third behind Indonesia (3rd overall) and Malaysia (5th), and was above the likes of Thailand (11th), the Philippines (21st) and Cambodia (41st).

According to Agility, Vietnam’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic has been one of the most successful globally, with data from Johns Hopkins University showing less than 1,500 reports of Covid-19 cases in the country in 2020.

The combination of social and economic restrictions with a strict and comprehensive testing and tracing system, saw lockdowns last less than three months, and by June many factories were reopened and domestic operations were recovering quickly, it said.

“The steps taken by Vietnam in 2020 propel it into the top 10 ranking in 2021 – its rise of three ranking positions to 8th overall is the fastest rise in the top half of the Index and displaces regional partner Thailand in the top 10,” stated the logistics firm.

“The country’s economy has performed well as a result of the minimal domestic disruptions and is set to be one of the best performing globally in 2020,” noted the report.

The foundation provided by the strong performance in 2020 is expected to underpin a 2021 expansion of 6.5% as domestic and international conditions normalize and the Covid-19 pandemic recedes.

In recent years, Vietnam has added significant hightech manufacturing capacity, helping attract investment from producers higher up the value chain as costs in China increased.

The option to avoid additional costs associated with the US-China trade war has added further motivation for manufacturers to choose Vietnam, noted Agility.

Samsung, which alone contributes a quarter of Vietnam’s exports through smartphone manufacturing activity in the country, will shift PC manufacturing to Vietnam after it shut down a Chinese factory in 2020. Apple is also reported to have requested that Foxconn open a Vietnam production location to add production capacity for iPads and MacBooks.

When the production lines become active in the first half of 2021, it will be the first time iPad manufacture to take place outside China. Meanwhile, chip manufacturer Intel will operate its largest assembly plant in the country and South Korea’s LG electronics announced investment plans during 2020.

With Covid-19 further exposing the risks of over-reliance on China, Vietnam will be an attractive option for relocation – indeed, when asked, 19.2% of survey respondents cited Vietnam as the number one location for those seeking to diversify production locations outside of China.

However, so rapid has the investment and arrival of new businesses been that it is creating challenges of its own, including a shortage of skills and knowledge to produce the highest value goods.

Navigos Group, which owns the country’s largest jobs site, reports that 71% of employers cite a lack of IT skills as their most significant challenge.

By 2025, the country set the contribution rate target for logistics to be at 5-6% of GDP, services growth rate between 15-20%, while the rate for logistics outsourcing to be 50-60%, said the government’s decision No.200 referring to an action plan to enhance the competitiveness and development of Vietnam’s logistics sector through 2025 and ensure its ran in the Logistics Performance Index of at least 50th.

The Hanoitimes – Vietnam said people must always be placed at the center of all dialogues and trust-building measures in Myanmar.

Vietnam’s Permanent Representative to the UN Ambassador Dang Dinh Quy has called on international efforts to assist Myanmar’s democratic transition with an aim to ensure the people-centered approach.

Vietnam’s Permanent Representative to the UN Ambassador Dang Dinh Quy calls for international support for Myanmar issues. Photo: Vietnam News Agency

The support, including that from ASEAN, needs to respect the independence, sovereignty, and internal affairs of Myanmar while securing humanitarian access and essential services to local people, mostly vulnerable ones, Quy said at the United Nations General Assembly’s informal meeting on Myanmar held on February 26.

He urged stakeholders to exert restraint, avoid escalating tensions and seek dialogues towards satisfying solutions, which are in line with the constitution, laws and people’s aspiration.

He asked UN Special Envoy on Myanmar Christine Schraner Burgener and representatives of 50 members of the UN and eight regional organizations to coordinate with ASEAN in stabilizing the situation in Myanmar.

Kyodo News has reported that Foreign Ministers of ASEAN member states will hold a special meeting on March 2 to discuss the situation in Myanmar.

It would be the first of such meeting of the 10-member bloc since Myanmar’s military declared a state of emergency and detained leaders, including U Win Myint and Aung San Suu Kyi on February 1.

Most ASEAN countries have expressed readiness to attend the meeting, with Myanmar’s military-appointed Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin also asked to attend.

Myanmar has seen an outpouring of anger and defiance from hundreds of thousands of protesters who have gathered to call for Suu Kyi’s release and a return to democracy.

Hundreds of anti-coup protesters who have rallied daily in the country’s largest city against a junta that toppled civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi have been dispersed by police, AFP reported.