Forecasting gdp growth

In long term, transforming the higher education system will be key to boosting Vietnam’s productivity and helping achieve its goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045. Vietnam’s GDP growth is forecast to surge from an estimated 2.6% in 2021 to 7.5% in 2022, with backing from resilient manufacturing and a robust rebound in services. Overview of the event. Photo: Nguyen Tung Country Director for the World Bank in Vietnam Carolyn Turk revealed the figures at the launch of its bi-annual economic outlook for Vietnam titled “Taking Stock: Educate to Grow” today [August 8]. According to Turk, the global economy has been experiencing a series of very large and negative shocks, including ongoing Covid-19-related disruptions and supply shocks associated with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In this context, Vietnam’s economy has shown “relative resilience and staged a strong rebound after last year’s Covid-19 induced slowdown,” Turk said. Vietnam’s economic … [Read more...] about Vietnam’s GDP growth set to expand by 7.5% in 2022: World Bank

At the press conference to release the report. (Photo: WB Vietnam) According to the latest economic update by World Bank (WB) for Vietnam, the country’s economy expanded 5.2 percent in Q4 of 2021, and respectively 5.1 percent and 7.7 percent in Q1 and Q2 of 2022. Inflation is projected to average 3.8 percent over the year. Carolyn Turk, WB Country Director for Vietnam, said that the bi-annual report “lays out a set of policy recommendations that could help mitigate the impact of these risks and make the economy more resilient going forward.” Titled “Taking Stock: Educate to Grow”, this edition underlines transforming the higher education system as the key to boosting the country’s productivity and achieving its development goals, in the context where the country re-emerges from the pandemic and into a challenging global environment. The report’s co-author Dorsati Madani said that while Vietnam’s economic recovery had been relatively stable, not all sectors witnessed the same … [Read more...] about Vietnam’s economic growth forecast at 7.5 percent in 2022: World Bank

Viet Nam has the cheapest valuations and second highest EPS growth in Southeast Asia, as this table shows. — Source VinaCapital “Viet Nam’s economy is even stronger than we had expected at the beginning of the year, but that strength is not reflected by higher stock prices due to the [US’s] aggressive rate hikes and the recent regulatory crackdown in Viet Nam,” Michael Kokalari, chief economist at VinaCapital, has said in a report. “That said, we expect over 20 per cent [company earnings] growth in 2022, which should support a recovery in the VN-Index by the end of 2022.” July economic statistics have not only reinforced VinaCapital’s forecast of 7.5 per cent GDP growth in 2022 but also make it look like the economy would grow by a stunning 10 per cent year-on-year in the current quarter, he said. “Our expectation that Viet Nam’s economy will grow by at least 7.5 per cent this year (and by at least 10 per cent in Q3) leads us to believe that the consensus forecast for 16 per … [Read more...] about Stock market to benefit from unexpectedly strong domestic growth: VinaCapital

According to the report, despite the challenging global economic environment, the outlook for the Vietnamese economy is still favorable according to the baseline forecast. Due to the impact of the low starting point, GDP is expected to grow by 7.5 percent in 2022 and 6.7 percent in 2023, when growth returns to pre-pandemic levels at 6.5-7 percent. Meanwhile, the average inflation is expected to fall around 3.8 percent in 2022, with the rising trend continuing in the second half of 2022. “The fuel price shock is expected to dissipate in 2023, but the second round of spillover effect continues to happen, and the forecasted GDP growth rate of 6.7 percent for the year will cause CPI to increase to 4 percent in 2023 before dropping to 3.3 percent in 2024,” the report said. According to WB experts, with travel restrictions lifted and international tourists gradually returning, the service sector has been recovering strongly. Export growth of manufactured and processed industrial products … [Read more...] about WB releases report ‘Educate to Grow’ on Vietnamese economic situation

Illustrative image (Source: VNA) Hanoi (VNA) – Many prestigious international organisations and experts have highly valued Vietnam’s development achievements and prospects, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh told a government meeting in Hanoi on August 3. The leader cited forecast by Standard Chartered , VinaCapital, Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (HSBC), and the Asian Development Bank ( ADB ) as saying Vietnam’s GDP will grow from 6.5% to 6.9% this year. Vietnam has maintained macro-economic stability and major balances, and put inflation under control, creating an important foundation for rapid, sustainable socio-economic recovery and development, he emphasised. Regarding tasks and solutions in the time ahead, the PM asked ministries and agencies to implement their set tasks and plans, and tackle both pending and emerging issues. Priorities should be given to consolidating institutions, he said, urging ministries, agencies and localities to … [Read more...] about Int’l organisations upbeat on Vietnam’s development prospects: PM

The Bank of Thailand (BoT)'s Senior Director Chayawadee Chai-Anant (Photo: pattayamail.com) Bangkok (VNA) - Thailand’s economy improved in June and the momentum is expected to continue into the second half of 2022 thanks to increased tourism and domestic consumption as pandemic curbs eased. The Bank of Thailand (BoT)'s Senior Director Chayawadee Chai-Anant said the tourism sector will play an important part in pushing the country’s economic recovery in the second half of 2022. She cited an increase in foreign visitors from 520,000 in May to 765,000 in June, saying that the number of tourists this year could exceed the bank’s current prediction of 6 million people. The senior director also stated that the central bank maintains its 2002 GDP growth rate forecast of 3.3%, as indicators signal that the country’s economic recovery will continue to accelerate in the year’s second half. She added that the bank would continue to watch local and global economic … [Read more...] about Thailand’s economy to improve further on consumption, tourism

Vo Tri Thanh *Vo Tri Thanh Global central banks are in a dash to raise interest rates to cool rampant inflation and their moves are challenging the State Bank of Viet Nam’s policymaking in a way to support the economic recovery while sustaining macroeconomic sustainability. Last week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by another 75 basic points (bps) – the second straight month and its third this year – in an effort to fight inflation which hit a 40-year high of 9.1 per cent in June. That takes the cumulative June-July increase to 150 bps – the steepest since the early 1980s. The European Central Bank on July 21 increased its benchmark interest rate by 0.5 per cent for the first time in 11 years and is signaling further hikes this year after consumer prices in the euro area are expected to rise to 8.9 per cent in July. Data from Reuters showed seven central banks of the Group of Ten delivered 350 basis points of rate hikes last month – nearly half of the … [Read more...] about Stability of Vietnamese dong under pressure of global headwinds

Illustrative image (Photo: VNA) Hanoi (VNA) - Vietnam will need a skilled workforce to transform itself into an upper-middle-income economy by 2035, the World Bank has suggested in its recently-released report named “Taking Stock: Educate to Grow”. In its bi-annual report, the lender said: “Vietnam needs a workforce with 21st century skills to grow. As the economy moves from being driven by low skill and low wage jobs in manufacturing and services towards a more innovation driven growth model built on higher value-added industries and services, Vietnam ’s workforce will need to attain higher level and more relevant skills.” The Vietnamese Government’s Socio-economic Development Strategy for 2021-2030 says as much, aiming to use scientific, technological, innovative, and digitally transformative knowledge and build quality human resources as key drivers of higher productivity and future economic growth. To achieve these goals, Vietnam needs to reform its education system … [Read more...] about Vietnam needs skilled workforce to become upper-middle-income economy by 2035: WB

The leader cited forecast by Standard Chartered, VinaCapital, Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (HSBC), and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) as saying Vietnam’s GDP will grow from 6.5% to 6.9% this year. Vietnam has maintained macro-economic stability and major balances, and put inflation under control, creating an important foundation for rapid, sustainable socio-economic recovery and development, he emphasized. Regarding tasks and solutions in the time ahead, the PM asked ministries and agencies to implement their set tasks and plans, and tackle both pending and emerging issues. Priorities should be given to consolidating institutions, he said, urging ministries, agencies and localities to focus on socio-economic recovery and development, economic restructuring, growth model reform and improving the economy’s resilience, along with cultural development, environmental protection, national defense and security, external affairs, and the communications work. … [Read more...] about Int’l organizations upbeat on Vietnam’s development prospects: PM

Deputy chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Assembly Nguyen Manh Tien speaks at the seminar. — Photo tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn In the face of the explosive wave of global technology, with increasingly favourable policies and rising interest of businesses, the Vietnamese blockchain market is forecast to continue to develop positively. The Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Assembly in collaboration with the Viet Nam Blockchain Association held a seminar on international experience in blockchain technology development and recommendations for Viet Nam last week. The conference aims to learn and enhance experience, standardise solutions for the development and application of blockchain technology, towards perfecting the legal system, and building institutions and policies to create a legal corridor for technology-related activities. Phan Duc Trung, permanent vice president of Viet Nam Blockchain Association, said: "Blockchain technology is a kind of … [Read more...] about Creating a legal corridor for blockchain development in Viet Nam